IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Saint Louis
Atlantic 10
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	+9.8	#52
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	67.6	#222
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+4.0	#71

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+5.8	#36

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.8%	0.8%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	2.1%	2.1%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	6.2%	6.3%	0.9%
Top 6 Seed	10.8%	10.9%	1.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid	41.4%	41.6%	12.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	29.2%	29.4%	7.2%
Average Seed	8.5	8.5	10.4

.500 or above	94.4%	94.7%	71.4%
.500 or above in Conference	84.8%	85.0%	55.1%
Conference Champion	21.8%	22.0%	7.8%
Last Place in Conference	0.5%	0.5%	4.6%

First Four	4.6%	4.6%	0.9%
First Round	39.1%	39.3%	12.3%
Second Round	21.2%	21.4%	4.9%
Sweet Sixteen	8.4%	8.4%	1.1%
Elite Eight	3.4%	3.4%	0.9%
Final Four	1.4%	1.5%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.6%	0.6%	0.0%
National Champion	0.2%	0.2%	0.0%

Next Game: SIU Edwardsville (Home) - 99.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	1 - 1	1 - 3
Quad 2	4 - 3	5 - 5
Quad 3	7 - 2	12 - 7
Quad 4	7 - 0	19 - 8

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 25, 2020	331	SIU Edwardsville	W	83-58	99%
Nov 28, 2020	30	LSU	W	77-76	52%
Dec 05, 2020	338	Arkansas Pine Bluff	W	79-51	99%
Dec 08, 2020	285	Central Arkansas	W	88-68	96%
Dec 12, 2020	261	Evansville	W	78-59	95%
Dec 15, 2020	122	Indiana St.	W	75-65	81%
Dec 20, 2020	37	@ Minnesota	L	67-71	35%
Dec 23, 2020	275	UMKC	W	76-57	96%
Dec 30, 2020	90	Duquesne	W	74-67	72%
Jan 02, 2021	128	Massachusetts	W	78-67	82%
Jan 06, 2021	157	@ La Salle	W	74-67	72%
Jan 09, 2021	174	@ Saint Joseph's	W	80-72	74%
Jan 14, 2021	81	Davidson	W	71-65	69%
Jan 20, 2021	128	@ Massachusetts	W	75-70	65%
Jan 23, 2021	85	St. Bonaventure	W	72-66	71%
Jan 26, 2021	47	Dayton	W	73-70	59%
Jan 29, 2021	53	@ Richmond	L	71-74	40%
Feb 06, 2021	198	@ George Washington	W	73-64	77%
Feb 10, 2021	93	Rhode Island	W	77-70	72%
Feb 13, 2021	201	@ Fordham	W	67-58	79%
Feb 16, 2021	157	La Salle	W	77-64	85%
Feb 19, 2021	47	@ Dayton	L	70-73	40%
Feb 23, 2021	99	@ Virginia Commonwealth	W	70-68	55%
Feb 25, 2021	53	Richmond	W	74-71	60%
Mar 01, 2021	123	George Mason	W	74-64	80%
Projected Record						18 - 7	12 - 5

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st											0.0	0.0	0.5	2.2	5.9	6.6	4.8	1.8			21.8	1st
2nd											0.0	0.6	3.3	6.4	5.1	1.7	0.2				17.3	2nd
3rd											0.5	3.1	5.8	3.8	0.9	0.0					14.1	3rd
4th										0.2	2.3	5.2	3.3	0.7	0.0						11.8	4th
5th									0.1	1.5	4.3	2.9	0.5	0.0							9.4	5th
6th								0.0	0.8	3.0	3.0	0.5	0.0								7.3	6th
7th								0.4	2.2	2.5	0.5	0.0									5.6	7th
8th							0.1	1.2	2.1	0.7	0.0										4.2	8th
9th						0.1	0.5	1.7	0.8	0.1											3.1	9th
10th					0.0	0.2	0.9	0.8	0.1	0.0											2.0	10th
11th				0.0	0.1	0.6	0.7	0.1	0.0												1.5	11th
12th				0.1	0.4	0.4	0.2														1.0	12th
13th			0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0														0.6	13th
14th	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0															0.2	14th

Total	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.7	1.4	2.4	4.2	6.0	8.1	10.7	12.4	13.4	13.1	11.9	8.4	5.0	1.8				Total

Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0
17-1	100.0%	1.8		1.8	0.0
16-2	95.6%	4.8		4.2	0.6
15-3	78.8%	6.6		4.4	1.9	0.3	0.0
14-4	49.7%	5.9		2.7	2.4	0.7	0.1
13-5	17.1%	2.2		0.5	1.0	0.6	0.2	0.0
12-6	3.7%	0.5		0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.1%	0.0					0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%	0.0							0.0
9-9	0.0%

Total	21.8%	21.8		13.6	6.1	1.7	0.4	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1	1.8%		100.0%	58.1%	41.9%	2.8		0.5	0.5	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0									100.0%
16-2	5.0%		98.8%	45.7%	53.1%	4.6		0.3	0.6	0.9	1.0	0.6	0.6	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0					0.1		97.8%
15-3	8.4%		94.2%	36.1%	58.1%	6.9		0.0	0.2	0.4	0.9	0.9	1.1	1.2	0.8	0.9	0.7	0.5	0.1	0.0				0.5		90.9%
14-4	11.9%		81.0%	28.6%	52.4%	8.9			0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.6	1.0	1.4	1.8	1.9	1.5	0.7	0.1				2.3		73.4%
13-5	13.1%		60.3%	22.2%	38.0%	10.1					0.0	0.1	0.1	0.4	0.6	1.2	1.7	2.2	1.3	0.2	0.0	0.0		5.2		48.9%
12-6	13.4%		36.8%	14.7%	22.1%	10.9						0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	1.0	1.6	1.4	0.3	0.0			8.5		25.9%
11-7	12.4%		20.5%	10.8%	9.7%	11.4							0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.7	0.9	0.3	0.1			9.8		10.9%
10-8	10.7%		10.5%	7.1%	3.3%	12.0									0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.6	0.2	0.1		0.0	9.6		3.6%
9-9	8.1%		4.9%	3.5%	1.4%	12.4											0.0	0.0	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0		7.7		1.4%
8-10	6.0%		2.3%	2.1%	0.1%	12.7												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		5.9		0.2%
7-11	4.2%		1.3%	1.3%		12.5													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		4.1
6-12	2.4%		0.8%	0.8%		14.0														0.0	0.0	0.0		2.4
5-13	1.4%		1.2%	1.2%		15.9																0.0	0.0	1.4
4-14	0.7%																							0.7
3-15	0.3%																							0.3
2-16	0.1%																							0.1
1-17	0.0%																							0.0
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		41.4%	17.2%	24.1%	8.5		0.8	1.3	1.7	2.4	2.0	2.6	3.1	3.4	4.8	5.8	6.8	5.3	1.2	0.2	0.0	0.0	58.6		29.2%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.4%	100.0%	1.8	46.2	38.4	9.2	6.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.1%	100.0%	2.3	42.4	28.3	2.0	10.1	16.2	1.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.1%	100.0%	2.6	19.0	32.1	23.4	25.5